Nefarious Trading
Deep Dive · Nefarious Trading
Vol. 01 · No. 39
May 29, 2026
IBM $297.80 ▲ +12.7%
ORCL $225.81 ▲ +10.8%
MSFT $450.24 ▲ +5.4%
NOW $124 ▲
PENG $55.83 ▲ +3.3%
PLTR $156.54 ▲ +9.2%
TXN $305 ▲
AVAV $207.32 ▲
ONDS $12.15 ▼ off spike
INTC $114.68 (don't chase)
DELL (don't chase)
AVGO $2T ▲
Thematic Tracker · Updated
U.S. Government Equity Positions
TRUMP PORTFOLIO
Top Performer
INTC +463%
▲ $20.47 entry → $115 spot · ~$26B unrealized gain
Thematic · Updated Tracker · The U.S. Government's Equity Portfolio
~20 government stakes · 43-name personal watchlist. Six top picks worth concentrating on. Don’t chase the names that already ran.
This report covers the complete updated U.S. government equity portfolio (now ~20 companies, ~$23B+ committed, anchored by an Intel position worth $36-50B), AND the full 43-name TradingView watchlist titled "Trump" sourced from May 2026 OGE filings showing his personal stock activity. The pattern is documented: Trump buys, Trump praises, stock moves — most famously when he became the first president EVER to call out a stock by ticker on April 10 praising Palantir. Below: the full universe organized by sector, the six names worth concentrating on (IBM, ORCL, MSFT, NOW, PENG, PLTR), the standalone TXN bullish call, and the two names where the trade has already played — DELL and INTC. I'm not personally bullish on quantum — covered in the reference section §08, not the active focus.
§ 01 — What Changed Since The Last Update
April: 11 deals, $20.9B. May: ~20 deals, $23B+. INTC up 76% in 5 weeks.
Three updates: OGE filings dropped (3,700+ Q1 trades · first-ever presidential ticker shoutout on PLTR April 10). INTC ripped — $8.9B stake now $36-50B. Drones are the next funding target (WSJ May 28) — AVAV + ONDS my picks.
TL;DR: Trump's personal book disclosed · PLTR ticker shoutout · INTC +$15B since April · drones next sector. See §02 + §03.
→ 01
Personal-portfolio layer is the new story
3,700+ Q1 trades · 36+ tech at $1-5M · first-ever ticker shoutout (PLTR Apr 10). Most actionable signal. See §02.
→ 02
Intel is the largest single win
$20.47 → $115 · $8.9B → $36-50B · ~$27B unrealized in 9 months · largest US gov equity win in history.
→ 03
Drones are the next target sector
WSJ May 28: Trump admin in talks to fund drone cos. AVAV +18%, ONDS +23%, UMAC +57% on news. My picks: $AVAV + $ONDS. See §03.
§ 02 — Johnny's Top Picks · Trump's Full Personal Watchlist
The complete 43-name TradingView watchlist sourced from OGE filings. Plus my picks on what's actually buyable here.
3,700+ Q1 trades · 43-name TradingView "Trump" watchlist. Below: top picks, what not to chase, TXN bullish, full list categorized.
🎯 Johnny's Top Picks
$IBM · $ORCL · $MSFT · $NOW · $PENG · $PLTR
Six picks · admin tie + real fundamentals. Full chart below.
$IBM · $ORCL · $MSFT · $NOW · $PENG · $PLTR
Six picks · admin tie + real fundamentals. Full chart below.
Don't Chase
- DELL — bought Feb 10, named Feb 19, +33% earnings May 29. Both pops done.
- INTC — +463% from entry. Northland downgrade May 26. Hold if owned.
Standalone Bullish · $TXN
NVIDIA 800 VDC partner · on Trump watchlist · cheaper than AI semis · plays 800 VDC + chip re-shoring.
Top Picks · Deep Dive Chart
| Ticker | Price | Trump Tie | Catalysts | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBM | ~$297.80 +12.7% May 29 |
$1B quantum foundry grant May 21 · CEO Krishna at W.H. tech dinner | "Anderson" foundry buildout · LOI → signed contract · Q2 earnings July · watsonx revenue growth · stake size disclosure | Stake small vs $230B+ cap · foundry pace · quantum optionality decades out · valuation premium |
| ORCL | ~$225.81 +10.8% May 29 |
Stargate co-launch w/ Ellison Jan 21, 2025 · personal Q1 purchase · TikTok US deal | Stargate Texas DCs live · OpenAI/Meta/xAI cloud bookings · OCI growth · Q1 FY27 earnings June · further Stargate tranches · $261 PT | 34x P/E pricing AI upside · GPU supply constraints · OpenAI financial-health concerns · stock already ran +10% in a day |
| MSFT | ~$450.24 +5.4% May 29 |
Stargate "key initial technology partner" · personal $1-5M Q1 buy · CEO Nadella W.H. tech dinner | Azure AI revenue · OpenAI integration · Copilot enterprise adoption · Stargate ramp · Q4 FY26 earnings July | Mega-cap = less explosive upside · AI regulatory scrutiny · OpenAI dependency · AWS margin competition |
| NOW | ~$124 post 5:1 split Dec '25 |
Personal $1-5M Q1 purchase · NVDA-aligned enterprise AI · no ticker shoutout yet | Now Assist AI agent ramp · enterprise IT spending recovery · Q2 earnings · potential first ticker shoutout given personal position · federal modernization contracts | High valuation (114x P/E) · enterprise IT spending cyclicality · MSFT Copilot + Salesforce + SAP competition · 5-for-1 split effective Dec 17 2025 |
| PENG | ~$55.83 +3.3% May 29 |
Former Trump first-admin national security official (Meghan Harris) tied · AI DC infra · SKT $200M + SK hynix partnership · NVIDIA DGX-Ready | AI factory deployments scaling · 100,000+ GPUs deployed · Korea's largest GPU cluster (1,000+ Blackwell) · Q2 earnings · APAC + Middle East expansion via SKT | Small-cap volatility · revenue concentration · AI factory execution · NVIDIA GPU supply dependency |
| PLTR | ~$156.54 +9.2% May 29 |
First-ever presidential ticker shoutout (Truth Social April 10) · personal $247K-$630K Q1 buy · Karp full-MAGA · Thiel inner circle | Maven Smart System military deployments (Iran strikes) · ICE/DHS contracts · AIP enterprise rollouts · Q2 earnings · international defense expansion · further Trump endorsements | 109x fwd P/E vs sector 21x · Burry short positions (Jun 2027 $50P, Dec 2026 $100P) · $432M insider selling, zero buying · sensitive to AI software repricing |
| TXN | ~$305 | On Trump TradingView watchlist · Q1 disclosures · NVIDIA 800 VDC named partner | 800 VDC AI DC adoption · automotive semiconductor recovery · CHIPS Act fab utilization · Q2 earnings · cheaper than most AI semis | Industrial cycle exposure · auto semis still soft · ADI competition · analog cycle tied to broader macro |
Full Watchlist By Category
AI / Cloud / Enterprise Software
| Ticker | Company | Why It's On The List | Johnny's Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | Oracle | Stargate co-announcement w/ Larry Ellison Jan 21, 2025 · personal Q1 purchase · TikTok US deal | TOP PICK |
| MSFT | Microsoft | Stargate "key initial technology partner" · personal $1-5M Q1 purchase · CEO at W.H. tech dinner | TOP PICK |
| NOW | ServiceNow | Personal $1-5M Q1 purchase · enterprise AI workflow leader · NVDA-aligned | TOP PICK |
| PLTR | Palantir | Personal $247K-$630K Q1 purchase · first president EVER to call out stock by ticker (Apr 10 Truth Social) | TOP PICK |
| ADBE | Adobe | Personal $1-5M Q1 purchase · no direct ticker call-out yet | Watch · personal-portfolio signal |
| WDAY | Workday | Enterprise HR/finance SaaS · on Trump watchlist | Watch · less direct signal |
| GOOG | Alphabet | Sundar Pichai at W.H. tech CEO dinner · mega-cap AI | Held by everyone · neutral |
| AMZN | Amazon | Personal purchase + $5-25M sale Feb 10 · cloud + retail | Held by everyone · neutral |
Semiconductors
| Ticker | Company | Why It's On The List | Johnny's Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| TXN | Texas Instruments | NVIDIA 800 VDC named partner · analog power ICs · on Trump watchlist | BULLISH · standalone call |
| NVDA | Nvidia | Trump bought $1-5M Feb 2026 · called Huang "amazing" and "brilliant" · Stargate partner | Already-run · likely next ticker shoutout |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Personal $1-5M Q1 purchase · supplies custom AI chips · $2T+ market cap | Already-run · core holder if owned |
| MU | Micron | Personal $50K-$100K Mar 25 · "one of the hottest companies" Fox Mar 26 · $1T mkt cap reached | Already-run · stake speculated |
| AMD | AMD | On Trump watchlist · AI chips competitor | Watch · already-run |
| INTC | Intel | 10% government equity stake · position worth $36-50B from $8.9B entry | DON'T CHASE · already +463% |
| MRVL | Marvell | Custom AI networking semis · Trump watchlist | Watch |
| SNPS | Synopsys | Chip design EDA tools · benefits from every fab buildout | Watch · structural beneficiary |
| CDNS | Cadence | Chip design EDA tools · duopoly with SNPS | Watch · structural beneficiary |
| VSH | Vishay | Analog/discrete semis · industrial + auto | Speculative · smaller cap |
AI Hardware / Servers / Storage
| Ticker | Company | Why It's On The List | Johnny's Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| PENG | Penguin Solutions | AI data center infrastructure pure-play · SK Telecom + SK hynix collaboration · 100K+ GPUs deployed · former Trump-admin national security official tied | TOP PICK |
| DELL | Dell Technologies | Personal $1-5M Feb 10 · "Buy a Dell" rally Feb 19 · +32.76% in one day on May 29 | DON'T CHASE · trade has played |
| JBL | Jabil | Contract manufacturing · AI server assembly | Watch · second-derivative play |
| STX | Seagate | Storage · benefits from AI data center buildout | Watch · structural beneficiary |
| SNDK | SanDisk | Memory/flash storage · spun out from Western Digital | Watch · speculative |
Mega-Cap Tech & Consumer Tech
| Ticker | Company | Why It's On The List | Johnny's Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | Trump personal purchase · Tim Cook at W.H. tech dinner | Mega-cap default · neutral |
Defense, Security & Aerospace
| Ticker | Company | Why It's On The List | Johnny's Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSI | Motorola Solutions | Police radios, dispatch software, border surveillance · fits admin priorities · Trump watchlist | Watch · admin-aligned |
| BA | Boeing | Aerospace prime · defense + commercial · Trump watchlist | Watch · cyclical |
Consumer / Travel / Discretionary
| Ticker | Company | Why It's On The List | Johnny's Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| COST | Costco | Defensive retail · steady compounder | Watch · defensive |
| ABNB | Airbnb | Travel platform · Trump watchlist | Watch |
| DASH | DoorDash | Food delivery platform · Trump watchlist | Watch |
Financials
| Ticker | Company | Why It's On The List | Johnny's Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| GS | Goldman Sachs | I-bank · capital markets thesis | Watch · cyclical |
| BAC | Bank of America | Money center bank | Watch |
Crypto-Adjacent
| Ticker | Company | Why It's On The List | Johnny's Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| COIN | Coinbase | Crypto exchange · benefits from admin pro-crypto stance | Watch · already-run |
| MSTR | MicroStrategy | Bitcoin treasury company | Watch · proxy for BTC |
| MARA | MARA Holdings | Bitcoin mining | Speculative |
Media & Entertainment
| Ticker | Company | Why It's On The List | Johnny's Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX | Netflix | Streaming leader · Trump watchlist | Watch · mega-cap |
| DIS | Disney | Entertainment + streaming · Trump watchlist | Watch · cyclical |
| CMCSA | Comcast | Cable + media · cross-read into HLIT (vCMTS thesis) | Watch |
| WBD | Warner Bros Discovery | Media · trading at distressed multiples | Speculative · value play |
| FOX | Fox Corp | Trump-aligned media network · obvious connection | Watch |
Space / Energy / Healthcare / Niche
| Ticker | Company | Why It's On The List | Johnny's Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| LUNR | Intuitive Machines | Lunar/space services · admin space priorities | Speculative |
| IRDM | Iridium | Satellite comms · John already owns this · defense-adjacent | Watch · already in book |
| BE | Bloom Energy | Fuel cells · AI data center power · adjacent to 800 VDC thesis | Watch · DC power play |
| OGN | Organon | Women's health pharma spinoff from Merck | Watch · defensive |
The Pattern
Trump buys → praises within days → stock rallies. Documented on PLTR, DELL, MU. Top 6 + TXN = where I deploy. Rest = research, not a buy list.
§ 03 — Drone Picks · Two Bullish Names
Trump admin in talks to fund drone companies. $AVAV and $ONDS are my two favorites.
WSJ May 28: Trump admin exploring equity-stake deals with drone manufacturers. "Intel playbook" expanding to autonomous defense. UMAC +57%, AVAV +18%, ONDS +23% on the news.
🛩️ Drone Picks
$AVAV · $ONDS
AVAV = established prime. ONDS = small-cap pure-play, 11x YoY revenue, max leverage to a funding announcement.
$AVAV · $ONDS
AVAV = established prime. ONDS = small-cap pure-play, 11x YoY revenue, max leverage to a funding announcement.
$AVAV — AeroVironment
| Current Price | ~$207.32 (May 29 · range $196.22-$219) |
| Market Cap | ~$10.35B |
| 52-Week | $156 - $417.86 |
| Analyst Consensus | Buy · 17 analysts · avg PT $309-318 (+50% upside) |
| Next Earnings | June 22, 2026 |
Catalysts
- Trump drone funding talks (May 28 WSJ) — direct beneficiary if equity-stake deals materialize
- $20M AFRL CAMP contract (May 28) · advanced ceramics for next-gen materials
- $20.2M Alabama LRIP facility expansion (May 26) · scaling production
- $43M DoW PANTHER antenna contract (May 12) · phased array radar
- U.S. Army LASSO prototype agreement (May 4) · loitering munitions
- AV_Halo + INSTINCT autonomy framework · positioned for swarm/AI drone warfare
- Successful C-UAS laser test (May 7) · counter-drone defense
- BlueHalo commercialization · Clear Street initiated Buy at PT $293
- June 22 earnings — direct catalyst
Risks
- Bernstein Liebhard class action lawsuit filed May 28 — securities fraud allegations
- Already off 50% from $417 peak · momentum negative until lawsuit resolved
- P/E negative (-49) · earnings need to inflect for valuation to support
- Defense budget cycle exposure
$ONDS — Ondas Holdings
| Current Price | ~$12.15 (May 29 close · pulled back from $13.25 May 28 spike of +23.7%) |
| Run So Far | 11-bagger over past year |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | $50M · +11x YoY |
| Analyst Coverage | Oppenheimer Buy · H.C. Wainwright bullish on drone funding theme |
Catalysts
- Trump drone funding talks (May 28 WSJ) — most leveraged small-cap beneficiary
- $30M+ new orders in May 2026 · defense/security/autonomous
- Omnisys acquisition · battlefield resource-optimization software
- World View acquisition · stratospheric platforms
- Palantir partnership · direct tie-in to the most Trump-aligned defense name
- 11x YoY Q1 revenue growth · operational momentum is real
- Optimus + Scout drone platforms · commercial + defense dual-use
Risks
- 14x expected 2026 sales — extreme valuation
- P/E 73x · already pricing significant upside
- Insider selling (Randy Seidl May 19, $0.2M past 3 months)
- Share dilution risk — prospectus filed for resale of acquisition shares
- Heavy acquisition-driven growth · integration risk on Omnisys + World View
- Small-cap high-beta — moves both ways violently
How To Play
AVAV = safer · concrete May contract wins · wait for Bernstein suit clarity but PT $309 with 50% upside is real. ONDS = asymmetric spec · max leverage on funding news but you pay 14x sales. Size accordingly.
§ 04 — Private & Pending Names
The names that aren't tradable yet. Two worth tracking: QNT IPO and L3Harris missile spin.
QNT — Quantinuum IPO · June 4, 2026
Honeywell quantum spinoff IPOs as QNT · $45-50 · ~$12.7B. HON retains 49.1%. HON = cleaner play.
L3Harris Missile Spin · H2 2026
$1B Pentagon investment converts to equity at spin (H2 2026). Own LHX into it.
Everything Else
Westinghouse, xLight ($150M LOI), Vulcan Elements, ReElement ($80M loan being scrapped — first potential unwind), 4 private quantum names. Not actionable.
§ 05 — The Portfolio Math (Updated)
~$23B cost basis. ~$50B+ current value. ~$27B+ unrealized gain.
U.S. government as a hedge fund. Public positions only. Rough estimates.
Value Build
| Position | Cost Basis | Estimated Current Value | Unrealized Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| INTC (10% / 433M shares) | ~$8.9B | ~$36B | ~$27B |
| MP (up to 15% via preferred + warrants) | ~$400M | ~$1.7B | ~$1.3B |
| LAC (5% LAC + 5% JV, $0.01 strike) | ~$0 (nominal) | ~$200-300M | ~$200-300M |
| TMQ (10% + warrants) | ~$35.6M | ~$80-100M | ~$50-65M |
| USAR (8-16%) | ~$277M equity (+ $1.3B loan) | ~$450M | ~$170M |
| IBM ($1B grant · stake size TBD) | ~$1B | ~$1B (just announced) | ~flat (too early) |
| GFS ($375M · ~1% stake) | ~$375M | ~$400M+ (up post-news) | ~$25-50M |
| QBTS / RGTI / INFQ ($300M combined) | ~$300M | ~$400M+ (post-news pop) | ~$100M+ |
| QNT (Quantinuum · $100M, IPOs Jun 4) | ~$100M | TBD (~$100-150M at $45-50 IPO) | TBD |
| Publicly Tradable Totals | ~$11B | ~$40B+ | ~$28-30B+ |
| Private Positions (Westinghouse, xLight, L3 missile, etc.) | ~$2-3B | Not marked to market | N/A |
| Total Committed Capital | ~$13-14B | ~$40B+ marked-to-market | ~$27B+ unrealized |
What This Means For Retail Investors
Here's the most useful angle. The "Trump portfolio" trade has worked extraordinarily well so far — but the easy money has been made. The names where retail could front-run the announcement and ride the move are mostly past peak announcement-day returns. What still has runway:
- The watchlist names (next section) are where the biggest mispricings remain because announcements haven't happened yet.
- L3Harris missile spinoff in H2 2026 will be a tradable government-equity-backed defense IPO.
Returns Since Announcement Day
| Ticker | Announcement Date | Day-Before-Announcement Close (retail entry) | Current | Retail Front-Runner Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | Aug 22, 2025 | ~$24 | ~$115 | +379% |
| MP | Jul 10, 2025 | ~$28 | ~$68 | +143% |
| LAC | Oct 1, 2025 | ~$3.50 | ~$5.15 | +47% |
| TMQ | Oct 6, 2025 | ~$2.10 | ~$4-7 | +90-230% |
| USAR | Jan 26, 2026 | ~$15 | ~$28 | +87% |
| IBM | May 21, 2026 | ~$232 | ~$297.80 | +28% |
| GFS | May 21, 2026 | ~$45 | ~$60 | +33% |
| QBTS | May 21, 2026 | ~$17 | ~$22 | +29% |
| RGTI | May 21, 2026 | ~$17 | ~$22 | +29% |
| INFQ | May 21, 2026 | ~$8.50 | ~$11 | +29% |
Pattern: front-run delivers 30-50% in days · long marinations (INTC, MP) compound into multi-baggers.
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"~20 deals · $23B committed · INTC +463%. Now official US industrial policy."
§ 06 — How To Play It Going Forward
The playbook is validated. Now the question is what's still mispriced.
Still Works
- Now official US industrial policy · more announcements coming.
- Multi-quarter compounding · INTC + MP both compounded 6+ months post-announcement.
- Catalysts queued: L3Harris missile spin H2 2026 · drone funding announcements anytime.
- Drones now the active sector. WSJ confirmed funding talks May 28.
- Template is replicable · nuclear, biotech, autonomy next.
Be Careful
- Easy money done · 30-50% pop now widely expected.
- Gov premium priced in USAR + MP.
- Deal-unwind risk · ReElement $80M loan being scrapped.
- Political risk · depends on admin continuity.
- U.S. Steel -77% · golden share ≠ equity.
§ 07 — My Take
The Trump playbook is now official US industrial policy. But the right way to play it is six names, not 43.
Concentrated, not scattered. Top 6: IBM, ORCL, MSFT, NOW, PENG, PLTR. TXN bullish (800 VDC + chip re-shoring). AVAV + ONDS drone picks. Don't chase DELL/INTC. Quantum not in my book.
The Updated Trade Plan
JOHNNY'S TOP PICKS
IBM, ORCL, MSFT, NOW, PENG, PLTR · core sleeve
STANDALONE BULLISH
TXN · 800 VDC + chip re-shoring + Trump watchlist
DON'T CHASE
DELL (post-earnings rip) · INTC (already +463%)
DRONE PICKS
AVAV (safer · PT $309) · ONDS (speculative · 11x revenue growth)
EXISTING HOLDS
Original 6 govt names · let them work
SKIP CATEGORY
Pure-play quantum (QBTS, RGTI, INFQ, QNT)
"Top 6 · TXN bullish · AVAV + ONDS drones · Don't chase what ran · Skip quantum. Concentrate where policy + personal book + fundamentals line up."
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"Top 6 · TXN bullish · AVAV + ONDS · Don't chase DELL/INTC · Skip quantum."