$1.75T SpaceX IPO. My 3 picks + 1 bonus to ride the ripple.
SpaceX going public reprices every space stock. The halo lasts longer than the IPO pop.
SpaceX prices June 11 and starts trading June 12 at $1.75 trillion — the largest IPO in US history. When SPCX prints, every public pure-play gets a comp halo. Instead of chasing the obvious heroes (RKLB at 90x sales, ASTS at 150x), my picks are SIDU, SPIR, SATL — small-cap pure-plays trading at 1/10th the multiple of SPCX with the same ripple-effect exposure. Bonus pick: RDW — the one we like the most. Space infrastructure pure-play that wins regardless of whether SPCX, RKLB, or anyone else dominates launch.
RDW — Redwire Corporation
$17.49 · +13.94% on filing day. The pure-play space infrastructure name that wins regardless of who launches what. Redwire makes solar arrays, deployable structures, and on-orbit servicing tech — the picks and shovels of the entire space economy. SPCX, RKLB, ASTS, PL all need what RDW builds.
The SPCX comp anchor. What looks cheap. What looks rich.
At $1.75T against $18.5B revenue, SPCX prints at ~94x trailing sales. That comp instantly reorders the basket. Names with cheaper EV/Sales multiples than SPCX have multiple-expansion room. Names already priced near or above SPCX are betting on flawless execution.
What The Chart Tells You
Cheap relative to SPCX: IRDM (6x), SATS (4x), SATL (9x), SPIR (10x), PL (12x) — most multiple-expansion room. In line with SPCX: RKLB (90x) — moves with SPCX, not separately from it. Above SPCX: ASTS (150x) — pricing flawless BlueBird execution. The cleanest setups combine cheap valuation with strong fundamentals: PL (12x EV/sales + $672M RPO) and IRDM (6x + cash flow positive + Trump-owned).
Trump bought it. Golden Dome contracts confirm it.
The basket sits at the intersection of Trump portfolio disclosure, Golden Dome defense contracts, FCC spectrum reform, and SPCX comp validation. Smart money signals are concrete government contracts, not narrative.
| Validator | Action / Position | Date |
|---|---|---|
| President Donald J. Trump | Disclosed personal buy: $15-50K RKLB position | Jan 21, 2026 |
| President Donald J. Trump | Disclosed personal buy: $1-15K ASTS position | March 17, 2026 |
| President Donald J. Trump | IRDM in May 14 portfolio disclosure at +120% YoY | Continuous 2025-2026 |
| US Space Force | Selected RKLB + Raytheon for Space-Based Interceptor program | 2026 |
| FCC | Spectrum rule overhaul lifted power limits for satellite broadband (direct ASTS catalyst) | May 2026 |
| NGA / NRO / NASA / Navy / NATO | Drove PL remaining performance obligations to $672M (+361% YoY) | Q1 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs + Morgan Stanley | Lead underwriters on SPCX — institutional space allocation flowing | May 2026 |
| Raytheon (RTX) | Partnered with RKLB on Space-Based Interceptor (validates RKLB as defense prime) | 2026 |
The Trump Sizing Tells You The Conviction Order
RKLB largest ($15-50K), IRDM longest-held (+120% YoY), ASTS smallest/most recent ($1-15K). This is a core + growth + speculative sizing pattern within the basket. Worth noting: Trump's other disclosed buys (AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, TXN, AVGO) all fit the AI infrastructure thesis. The aerospace basket sits at the intersection of AI infrastructure and defense — exactly the cross-cutting theme that captures sophisticated capital.
My 3 picks + 1 bonus. Plus the basket context.
⭐ The Picks (Where Conviction Sits)
| Ticker | Price | Role | Why The Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| RDW ⭐ BONUS | $17.49 | Space infrastructure picks-and-shovels | The one we like the most · Wins regardless of who launches |
| SIDU | $5.12 | Small-cap space pure-play | Highest beta to SPCX ripple · +24% on filing day |
| SPIR | $21.16 | Space-based data analytics (SaaS-like) | ~10x EV/sales · Recurring revenue model |
| SATL | $10.61 | Earth observation (PL competitor) | +407% YTD · ~9x EV/sales vs PL at 12x |
Context — The Megacap Names (Watch, Don't Chase)
| Ticker | Price | Why Not The Pick |
|---|---|---|
| RKLB | $135.76 | ~$72B mcap · ~90x sales · Up +449% trailing · Priced for Neutron success |
| ASTS | $105.86 | ~$32B mcap · ~150x sales · Above SPCX comp · Execution-risk priced |
| PL | $44.35 | +1,103% trailing 12 months · Strong fundamentals but no upside catalyst left |
| IRDM | $48.84 | Cleanest balance sheet but low-beta to SPCX ripple thesis |
| FLY | $49.50 | +15% on filing day · New listing · Speculative |
| SATS | $124.20 | Down -3.3% against the basket rip · Relative weakness signal |
Skip From Basket Entirely
| Ticker | Why Skip |
|---|---|
| MRLN | Flat on +10% basket day = relative weakness |
| EOS | AU defense (counter-drone) · Different thesis · Not space pure-play |
| STM | European chip company · Not a space pure-play |
| FTC | UK-listed · ADR liquidity issues · Down 6% against the rip |
Trade ideas like this, before they hit the timeline.
Join Discord →Bulls win on patience. Bears win on timing.
Bull Case
- SPCX IPO June 12 at $1.75T creates comp halo across entire public space basket.
- $1.2T Golden Dome program — multi-year contract tailwind.
- Trump personally bought RKLB + ASTS. IRDM in portfolio at +120% YoY.
- FCC spectrum reform removed structural constraints on satellite broadband.
- RKLB selected for Space Force Interceptor program with Raytheon.
- PL RPO +361% to $672M — biggest forward-visibility number in space sector.
- Basket avg +9.4% on S-1 filing day — ripple effect quantified.
Bear Case
- Basket up 200-1,100% trailing 12 months — chasing near highs.
- SPCX at 94x revenue is priced for perfection. Disappointment = ceiling, not halo.
- RKLB $3B share offering May 19 — dilution risk near-term.
- ASTS April 2026 New Glenn failure pushed launch cadence right.
- SPCX 180-day lockup expires Dec 2026 — selling pressure on the comp.
- RKLB Neutron debut Q4 2026 is binary — failure cuts the stock in half.
- Sector beta is extreme — basket sells off harder in risk-off events.
Sized as ONE position. Outcomes are basket-wide.
Catalyst Calendar
| Catalyst | Date | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| SPCX Trading Debut | June 12, 2026 | The catalyst — basket reprices immediately |
| Q2 2026 Earnings (RKLB, PL, ASTS) | July-August 2026 | Fundamental confirmation |
| RKLB Neutron Debut Launch | Q4 2026 | Single largest binary catalyst |
| SPCX 180-Day Lockup Expiration | December 2026 | Rotation into public pure-plays |
SIDU · SPIR · SATL — the picks. RDW — the bonus we like most.
SPCX prices June 11 and starts trading June 12. The obvious picks (RKLB, ASTS, PL) are up 200-1,100% trailing — chasing the heroes near highs. The smarter trade: small-cap pure-plays trading at 1/10th the multiple of SPCX with the same ripple exposure. SIDU + SPIR + SATL as the picks. RDW as the bonus — the one we like the most because it wins regardless of who dominates launch.