Nefarious Trading Est 2021
⏱ 5 min read Sector Research · Vol. 01 No. 65 · July 2026
SOLAR12.8% > COAL 12.2% GLW80% WAFER CAPACITY PRE-SOLD FPS5 QTRS UP IN A ROW EOSELINE 2 LIVE SOLAR12.8% > COAL 12.2% GLW80% WAFER CAPACITY PRE-SOLD FPS5 QTRS UP IN A ROW EOSELINE 2 LIVE
Nefarious Watchlist · Solar Supply Chain
The Solar Toll Booths
$GLW · $FPS · $EOSE
3 of 27
passed the screen · July 14, 2026

Solar just passed coal for the first time in American history. I screened 27 stocks down to three toll booths — the wafers, the switchgear, and the batteries.

The Milestone

In May, solar made more of America's electricity than coal for the first time ever — 12.8% vs 12.2%. And when America builds new power now, 91% of it is solar and batteries.

The Screen

Panels are the crowded, cutthroat part of the boom. I ran 27 supply-chain stocks through two filters — sales growing every single quarter, and a product so scarce the whole industry lines up for it.

The Picks

Three passed: GLW (the only US solar wafer source), FPS (grid switchgear, up every quarter), EOSE (the only zinc long-duration battery). Full 27-name scorecard at the bottom.

Not financial advice — one trader's screen. Do your own research. NFA · DYOR.
§ The Play

The gold rush rule: don't dig for gold. Sell the shovels.

In every boom, the famous names fight each other to the death while their suppliers quietly get rich. Solar is no different: dozens of companies make panels, and they compete each other's prices into the ground. But a panel cannot exist without a wafer (the silicon slice inside it), cannot touch the grid without switchgear (the industrial breakers and transformers that connect it), and cannot power your house at night without a battery. Those three parts are in shortage. The companies that sell them are toll booths — they get paid no matter which panel brand wins.

1
Solar passed coal — the boom is real
2
The build-out needs scarce parts
3
Own the parts, not the panels

The screen: 27 stocks, two questions. Is revenue growing every quarter, back to back — not just "up from last year," which seasons and hype can fake? And does the company sell something scarce? Two yes answers or it's out. The full scorecard is at the bottom.

In Plain English

In a gold rush, most miners go broke — the people selling picks and shovels get rich either way. These three sell the "shovels" of the solar boom: the silicon slices panels are made from, the electrical gear that plugs everything in, and the batteries that store sunshine for night.

§ 01 · Corning · $GLW

The wafer monopoly. 80% of its capacity is already reserved — five years out.

$186.44
Price · +1.8% today
+80%
Solar sales growth · yr/yr
80%+
Capacity pre-sold · 5 yrs
Only 1
US wafer maker at scale
$186.44
$51.71 low$271.38 high
Sales by quarter (whole company)
$3.45B
$3.86B
$4.10B
$4.22B
$4.14B
Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26
The whole company climbs steadily — and the solar unit inside it did $370M last quarter, up 80% from a year ago, the fastest-growing thing Corning owns.
What they sell
The silicon slice inside every American panel
Before a solar panel exists, someone melts ultra-pure silicon and slices it into thin wafers. Corning owns the only US factory doing this at scale — a $1.5B plant in Michigan — plus the raw silicon supplier behind it (Hemlock) and a panel plant in Phoenix. A complete made-in-America chain, inside a 175-year-old glass company.
Why it's a toll booth
Buyers already reserved five years of output
US tax credits pay panel makers extra for American-made parts — and Corning is the only place to get American wafers. Customers have locked up more than 80% of its capacity for the next five years. When you sell out half a decade ahead, you set the price.
The catch
Solar is a tenth of the company — and the ramp is late
The factory ramp is running behind schedule (an extra ~$30M of costs this quarter), and solar is only ~9% of Corning's sales — most of the stock's move comes from its fiber-optic cable business feeding AI data centers. You get the monopoly, diluted. The safe pick, not the cheap one.
In Plain English

Corning is the only company in America making the silicon slices every US-built panel starts from — and buyers already reserved most of the next five years. It is the only flour mill in a country that just decided to bake all its own bread. The ovens are running a little late.

§ 02 · Forgent Power · $FPS

The switchgear compounder. $2B of orders waiting — and they come in 2x faster than they ship.

$41.53
Price · 37% off high
+103%
Sales growth · yr/yr
$1.98B
Orders waiting to be built
5 for 5
Quarters of growth in a row
$41.53
$25.99 low$65.53 high
Sales by quarter
$186M
$238M
$283M
$296M
$379M
Mar '25Jun '25Sep '25Dec '25Mar '26
Up every single quarter on record, and accelerating — +28% in the latest jump alone. The only stock in the screen that did it.
What they sell
The industrial plugs and breakers of the power boom
Switchgear, transformers, transfer switches — the heavy electrical hardware that connects data centers and solar farms to the grid. Nothing gets energized without it. Data centers alone are 42% of sales, and no single customer is over 9%. Latest quarter: $378.7M in sales, up 103% from a year ago, with profits growing even faster.
Why it's a toll booth
Orders arrive 2.3x faster than they ship
America is short on this equipment — industry waitlists stretch to 2028. Last quarter Forgent took $867M of new orders while shipping $379M, so the pile of paid work waiting to be built hit $1.98B. The next quarter is already fully booked. When customers queue for years, the seller sets the terms.
The catch
The owners are selling into the strength
Forgent was stitched together by a private-equity firm from four factories and taken public in February at $27. In June those same owners sold a big block at $49 — and the stock now trades below that at $41.53. Giants like Eaton build the same gear, so the edge fades once the industry catches up on capacity. Growth stock rules apply: the first down quarter changes everything.
In Plain English

Every data center and solar farm needs giant industrial switches and transformers to plug into the grid — and America cannot make them fast enough. Forgent grows every quarter because customers cannot afford to wait, and it is sitting on two billion dollars of orders. The flag: the owners who built it are cashing out while it is hot.

§ 03 · Eos Energy · $EOSE

The zinc battery bet. $24B of customer interest — priced like it's going to zero.

$4.35
Price · 78% off high
+445%
Sales growth · yr/yr
$24.3B
Deals in negotiation
$645M
Signed orders waiting
$4.35
$4.05 low$19.86 high
Sales by quarter
$10M
$15M
$31M
$58M
$57M
Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26
Sales grew 5x in one year, then paused for a quarter while the second factory line came online. Management says $300–400M for 2026 — the ramp resumes or the thesis breaks.
What they sell
A grid battery made of zinc, not lithium
Solar's weakness is night. Eos builds warehouse-scale batteries from zinc — cheaper materials, can't catch fire, stores power for 3–12 hours (regular lithium tops out around 4), and it's 91% made in America. It is the only company shipping this technology commercially.
Why it's a toll booth
The rules just outlawed its competition
New US rules penalize batteries with Chinese supply chains — which is nearly all lithium batteries — while paying bonuses for American-made ones. That funnels utility buyers straight to Eos: $645M in signed orders, a first 400 MWh purchase order landed in June, its second production line went live June 17 on schedule, and $24.3 billion of deals sit in negotiation behind that.
The catch
It burns cash and is printing new shares right now
Eos spent ~$120M of cash last quarter and is raising ~$225M by selling new shares at $5.48 — while the stock trades at $4.35, below the raise price. That's the market saying it doubts the ramp. The 78% crash from the high is the risk, priced in. Lottery-ticket sizing only.
In Plain English

Eos makes big batteries from zinc instead of lithium — cheaper, fireproof, all-American, and they store power longer. Customers want $24 billion worth, and new rules punish its Chinese-supplied rivals. But it still spends far more than it earns and is selling new shares to survive the ramp. It works big or it doesn't work at all.

§ How The Three Fit Together

One boom, three roles. The anchor, the engine, and the flyer.

The build-out pays all three no matter which panel brand wins: the wafer before a panel exists (GLW), the switchgear to plug anything in (FPS), the battery to keep lights on after sunset (EOSE). But they are not the same kind of bet — they ladder by risk, and they do different jobs side by side.

GLW
FPS
EOSE
Sleep-well endLottery-ticket end
GLW · The Anchor
The one you hold without checking
A monopoly tucked inside a $160B giant. If solar stumbles, the AI fiber business still carries the stock — two tailwinds, either one can do the job. Moves slow. The role: foundation of the trade, the piece you size largest and think about least.
FPS · The Engine
The one that does the compounding
Five straight quarters of growth with $2B of orders queued — this is where the returns come from if the play works. But it is priced for perfection, so it earns its spot one quarter at a time. The role: the growth motor you watch closely and cut fast if the streak breaks.
EOSE · The Flyer
The one that pays for all the others — or doesn't
78% off its high with a $24B pipeline — if the zinc ramp works, the outcome is a multiple, not a percentage. If it doesn't, it keeps falling. The role: the smallest slice, sized so that losing all of it changes nothing about your month.
In Plain English

Think of it like a road trip crew: GLW drives the car (steady, gets you there), FPS reads the map and sets the pace (fast but needs attention), EOSE bought the lottery ticket at the gas station. Same destination, three different jobs — and you would not want three of any one of them.

§ The Scorecard

All 27 stocks, two filters. Only three check both boxes.

Growing every quarter? — sales up sequentially, quarter after quarter, not just "up from last year." Sells something scarce? — a product the build-out cannot get anywhere else. Two checks = pick. Scarce but not growing = watch list. Neither = cut. Size is market cap — smaller companies move more, both directions.

StockSizeGrowing every quarter?Sells something scarce?Verdict
✓✓ — The picks: growing AND scarce
GLW
solar wafers
$160BPICK
FPS
switchgear
$13.4BPICK
EOSE
zinc batteries
$1.7BPICK
✓ on scarcity only — watch for growth to flip
FSLR
solar panels
$24.6BWATCH
GEV
turbines & grid gear
$260BWATCH
ETN
electrical equipment
$140BWATCH
PWR
grid construction
$98.6BWATCH
POWL
switchgear
$8.5BWATCH
VRT
data center power
$117BWATCH
✗✗ — failed both filters
NXT
panel trackers
$16.4BCUT
SHLS
site wiring
$1.7BCUT
TE
panel factories
$1.9BCUT
ENPH
home inverters
$5.7BCUT
RUN
home solar
$2.9BCUT
FLNC
battery projects
$3.0BCUT
TSLA
EVs + storage
$1.5TCUT
HUBB
grid parts
$25.3BCUT
CEG
nuclear power
$104BCUT
VST
power plants
$55.2BCUT
TLN
nuclear power
$16.6BCUT
NRG
power plants
$29.1BCUT
NEE
utility + renewables
$185BCUT
FCX
copper
$85.3BCUT
HL
silver
$10.4BCUT
PAAS
silver
$18.6BCUT
AG
silver
$8.5BCUT
WPM
metals royalties
$50.8BCUT
In Plain English

The watch-list six own something scarce but their sales breathe with seasons or big project timing — one strong quarter flips any of them to a pick. The bottom eighteen either ride the boom without owning anything scarce, or their sales follow metal prices and weather instead of demand.

§ Dates That Matter

The next six weeks decide who was right.

DateWhat happens
July 21EOSE — the new-share sale closes. How much gets bought at $5.48 tells you what big money thinks of the ramp.
Late JulyGLW — Q2 earnings (expected). The number to watch: is the wafer factory ramp back on schedule after the delay?
July 30FSLR — earnings, plus the pending tariff ruling around it. A clean print flips the biggest watch-list name toward a pick.
~Late AugustFPS — fiscal Q4 report (expected). The streak is the story: quarter six of growth in a row, or the first crack.
In Plain English

Each pick has a near-term test: does Eos raise its money, does Corning fix its factory delay, does Forgent keep the streak. Dates marked "expected" are estimates, not confirmed.

§ Ratings & Risk / Reward

The three picks, scored. Quality is a fundamental read, not a price call.

TickerPrice~Mkt capQualityRisk / reward
GLW$186.44~$160B8.0Lower risk — real monopoly inside a giant; solar upside diluted by the conglomerate
FPS$41.53~$13.3B7.0High — fastest grower in the screen, priced for perfection, PE overhang above
EOSE$4.35~$1.7B5.0Speculative — real tech monopoly, real burn; dilution in progress, lottery-ticket sizing
Prices intraday Jul 14, 2026. Quality out of 10 — one trader's fundamental read, not a prediction. Bigger cap = steadier; smaller = more torque, more risk.
§ The Verdict

Own the tolls, not the traffic.

Real shift, not hype

Solar passing coal isn't a projection — it happened in May. And 91% of new US power capacity is already solar + storage. The build-out is funded and under way.

Pick your slice

GLW = the anchor (wafer monopoly, sleeps well) · FPS = the engine (the compounding, watched quarterly) · EOSE = the flyer (multiple-or-nothing). Different bets, same tailwind.

The tests are dated

Each pick proves itself inside six weeks: EOSE's share sale closes July 21, GLW's wafer-ramp answer lands with Q2 earnings in late July, FPS faces streak-quarter six in late August.

Not a recommendation — a map of the trade. These move fast on news; size accordingly. NFA · DYOR.
§ My Take

The screen picked them. The conviction call is mine to add.

Awaiting John's notes
This section publishes in John's own words — his read, his sizing, his conviction. Placeholder until he sends it.

Want to see what price I bought in at — or the other stocks I'm in? Click the button below to join the Discord.

Want to see what price I actually bought in at?

Join the Discord to find out! →
discord.gg/nfrs · @Nefarioustrading
Nefarious Trading
Equity research and trading commentary — AI infrastructure, energy transition, power equipment, storage.
AuthorJohnny Li
Sources
Ember analysis of EIA data (solar 12.8% vs coal 12.2%, May 2026) · Corning Q1 2026 results & Springboard updates · Forgent Power FQ3 2026 results (May 14) & June follow-on filing · Eos Energy Q1 2026 results, Line 2 launch (June 17), Frontier Power PO (June 18) & July rights offering · quarterly financials via stockanalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) · live prices via brokerage feed, July 14, 2026 intraday.
One trader's view — not investment advice. Do your own research. GLW $186.44, FPS $41.53, EOSE $4.35 intraday at time of writing (July 14, 2026). Pre-profit companies (EOSE) carry real dilution and loss risk — a share sale is in progress; sponsor-controlled names (FPS) carry overhang risk from insider selling; forward figures are management guidance and estimates, not guarantees. © 2026 Nefarious Trading.
Solar Stocks: Top 3 Picks for Growth in 2026 Market | Nefarious Research