Nefarious Trading Est 2021
⏱ 3 min read Research · Vol. 01 No. 56 · July 2, 2026
NO PRIORSJUN 18 · "BOTTLENECK = INTERCONNECT" ▲ CRDOHIS BOARD SEAT · EARLY INVESTOR ▲ CELESTIAL AIHIS CHECK → MRVL $5.5B ▲ INTC$25M PERSONAL BUY · MAR 2025 ▲ NO PRIORSJUN 18 · "BOTTLENECK = INTERCONNECT" ▲ CRDOHIS BOARD SEAT · EARLY INVESTOR ▲ CELESTIAL AIHIS CHECK → MRVL $5.5B ▲ INTC$25M PERSONAL BUY · MAR 2025 ▲ NO PRIORSJUN 18 · "BOTTLENECK = INTERCONNECT" ▲ CRDOHIS BOARD SEAT · EARLY INVESTOR ▲ CELESTIAL AIHIS CHECK → MRVL $5.5B ▲ INTC$25M PERSONAL BUY · MAR 2025 ▲
Insider Intelligence · The Money Trail · Optics & Interconnect
Lip-Bu Tan
Intel CEO · Walden Founder · The Optics Bottleneck Call
600+
companies backed · $5B+ deployed since 1987 · Forbes’ "pioneer of Asian VC"

The optics plays mapped to Lip-Bu Tan’s bottleneck call — and every private company he’s backed, with buyout status. Straight to it.

§ The Plays

The names mapped to his thesis — ranked by his connection. Two he’s tied to directly; three ride the same wave.

NameRole in the optics stackHis connection
$CRDO · CredoLPO SerDes/DSPs + active electrical cables — the copper-to-optics bridge; 224G PAM4DIRECT — early-stage investor, board member today
$MRVL · MarvellPAM4 optical DSPs + custom silicon + Celestial AI Photonic Fabric ($500M rev run-rate guided by late FY28, $1B FY29)DIRECT — 3 of his companies inside (Inphi, Aquantia, Celestial)
$ALAB · Astera LabsPCIe/CXL retimers + smart cable modules; bought aiXscale Photonics; rev +93% to $308MThematic — the same interconnect chokepoint he names
$LITE · LumentumHigh-power DFB lasers for co-packaged optics; 800G ZR+; irreplaceable InP supplyThematic — the laser layer of his optics call
$AAOI · Applied OptoDatacenter optical transceivers — the higher-beta small-cap of the groupThematic — flagged in coverage of his comments

CRDO + MRVL = verifiable conviction (board seat · three portfolio companies acquired) · ALAB/LITE/AAOI = same wave, standard cautions (ALAB rich after its run · LITE cyclical · AAOI small-cap torque). All five must pass the Trend Check before entry — live prices from IBKR · this maps the thesis, not the entries.

In Plain English

Two have his fingerprints (Credo — board; Marvell — bought three of his companies) · three ride the wave (ALAB, LITE, AAOI) · check charts before buying.

§ His Private Buys — Bought Out or Not

Every private company he’s backed. Green = acquired · the rest are listed or still private.

CompanyHis checkBought out?
Celestial AIPersonal — Mar 2025 Series C1 ($250M rd @ $2.5B)YES — Marvell, Feb 2026, $5.5B
InphiWalden, by 2004YES — Marvell, 2021, ~$10B
AquantiaLed/co-ledYES — Marvell, 2019
Annapurna LabsLed/co-ledYES — Amazon, 2015 (became AWS silicon)
Altair SemiLed/co-ledYES — Sony, 2016
Aptina ImagingWalden, by 2004YES — ON Semi, 2014
Ariba · JobStreetEarly Walden eraYES — SAP 2012 · SEEK 2014
Credo ($CRDO)Early-stage · 3.33M sh via Walden vehicles · ~$55M+ sold 2024-25 · ~694k retainedNO — IPO Jan 2022, independent · he’s on the board
Ambarella ($AMBA)Led/co-ledNO — IPO 2012, independent
SMIC$52M via Walden · $630M 2003 roundNO — listed · he exited Jan 2021
AMEC (688012.SH)Tens of millions via WaldenNO — listed (Shanghai STAR)
Check PointEarly Walden eraNO — public, independent
MindtreeEarly Walden eraMerged — now LTIMindtree
Alif · Artera.aiCurrent (Walden Catalyst / Celesta)NO — still private

Score: 7+ buyouts — three of them (Inphi · Aquantia · Celestial, ~$15.5B combined) all to Marvell, which is why $MRVL sits in the plays above · the not-bought-out column is mostly IPOs he rode up (Credo, Ambarella) or exits (SMIC).

In Plain English

Most of his private bets got acquired — three by Marvell alone. The ones that didn’t sell went public instead (Credo, Ambarella). Alif and Artera.ai are the two still-private names to watch.

Want the CRDO and MRVL deep dives — entries mapped to the Trend Check?

Join the Discord to find out! →
discord.gg/nfrs · @Nefarioustrading
Nefarious Trading
Equity research and trading commentary — AI infrastructure, photonics, enterprise software, power semiconductors.
AuthorJohnny Li
Instagram@Nefarioustrading
Communitydiscord.gg/nfrs
Sources
SEC Form 4s / Investing.com / StockTitan / GuruFocus (CRDO: Walden Tech Ventures II LP 3,331,023 sh Jul 2024; 2024-25 sale tranches ~$14M/$8.4M/$8M/$6.8M/$5.6M/$13.4M/$690k/$275k; ~694,073 sh retained post-Jun 24-25 2025 sales @ $90-93.62; holdings via LP + Lip-Bu Tan & Ysa Loo Trust + A&E Investment LLC + personal) · SEC Form 4 / TheStreet (INTC: 1,043,406 sh @ ~$23.96, Mar 21 2025; Mar 2026: 306,692 PSUs + 468,087 options) · Parola Analytics (Celestial AI $250M Series C1 Mar 2025 @ $2.5B, Lip-Bu Tan personal participation) · imec / Ben Pouladian (Marvell-Celestial Feb 2026 $5.5B; Inphi 2021 ~$10B; Aquantia 2019; AMD/Enosemi; ALAB/aiXscale) · House Select Cmte Feb 2024 / Wikipedia ($52M SMIC via Walden, exited Jan 2021; AMEC tens of millions) · Fortune Aug 2025 (SMIC $630M 2003 round, board to 2018) · Committee of 100 bio (led/co-led list) · his LinkedIn (early-stage Credo, IPO 1/2022) · Yahoo/247WallSt (No Priors Jun 18 2026). Pricing not live IBKR.
One trader's view — do your own research. Published July 2, 2026. This report profiles a public figure using public filings, press reporting, and company disclosures; it is not investment advice and no position is stated in the names discussed. Lip-Bu Tan’s comments reflect his own interests: Intel sells CPUs, he serves on Credo’s board, and his venture funds held stakes in companies referenced — alignment is disclosed, not endorsed. Venture investment dates/outcomes are from bios and press and may be incomplete; "led/co-led" reflects Walden-affiliated vehicles, not necessarily personal checks, except Celestial AI (Mar 2025, reported personal participation). Political and regulatory events (Aug 2025) are summarized from reporting. Quotes are paraphrased from public sources. All five mapped names carry sector risk (valuation, cyclicality, competition) and require independent trend verification with live pricing before any entry. Nothing here is a price target or recommendation. © 2026 Nefarious Trading.