America can't build the equipment that powers AI fast enough — and this five-month-old stock grows every single quarter because of it.
Forgent's revenue has risen every quarter on record — five for five, accelerating — hitting $378.7M last quarter, up 103% from a year ago, with margins expanding while it scales.
It sells switchgear and transformers — the electrical guts of data centers (42% of sales) and grid hookups — into a national shortage. Orders arrive 2.3x faster than they ship; $1.98B is queued; the next quarter is already fully booked.
No patent protects a queue — the moat is a shortage, and the private-equity firm that assembled Forgent sold a block at $49 in June. The stock trades below that at $41.53, at ~66x this year's profit guide.
Every data center is a giant appliance. Someone has to build the plug.
A data center or solar farm can be finished, staffed, and ready — and still sit dark, because connecting anything big to the grid takes industrial-grade switchgear, transformers, and transfer switches. America stopped building enough of this equipment years ago, and the AI construction boom hit that weak spot: industry waitlists now stretch to 2028. Forgent makes exactly this hardware, engineered to order, and ships it faster than the giants' queues — which is why its customers keep paying up.
Everything points up. That's exactly what's priced in.
| Metric | Latest | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $378.7M · +103% | The streak is the thesis — five up quarters in a row |
| Gross margin | 34.6% | Shortage pricing power — they charge what the queue allows |
| Adj EBITDA | $84.7M · 22.4% | +200bps QoQ — margins rising while scaling |
| New orders | $867M · +308% | Orders arriving 2.3x faster than shipments |
| Backlog | $1.98B · +157% | ~1.4 years of revenue already sold |
| FY26 guide | $1.35–1.39B · raised | Management sees no slowdown — +82% at midpoint |
| Cash vs debt | $94M / $584M | Leveraged balance sheet — the PE-buildout legacy |
| Insider supply | Sold at $49 · June | Sponsor cashing out above today's price — overhang risk |
The multiple — honest framing. At $41.53, FPS is a ~$13.3B company: roughly 10x this year's revenue guide and ~66x this year's adjusted profit guide. Powell — same products, slower growth — trades near 2x sales. The bull math: the new factory campuses support $5B of annual revenue; at a ~15% profit margin that's ~$750M a year, making today's price ~18x. The bear math: you're paying 6.7x the entire backlog, and if orders merely flatten, a 60x-profit manufacturer has a long way down. The multiple is a bet the queue keeps growing through 2028.
Four factories, one brand, one IPO. Speed is the whole company.
Forgent didn't grow into this market — it was assembled for it. PE firm Neos Partners bought four electrical-equipment makers in eight months, unified them, and took the result public inside three years.
Smallest player, fastest growth. Giants above, one twin beside.
| Ticker | Company | What they make | The angle |
|---|---|---|---|
| FPS | Forgent Power | Engineered-to-order switchgear, transformers, e-houses | Speed for buyers who can't wait — fastest grower in the lane |
| POWL | Powell Industries | Custom MV switchgear & e-houses | The debt-free twin — $1.8B backlog, +6% growth, $545M cash |
| ETN | Eaton | Everything electrical, grid to chip | The giant — $14.5B electrical backlog, DC orders +240% |
| HUBB | Hubbell | Utility & grid components | Outside-the-fence grid gear — least data-center exposure |
| VRT | Vertiv | Data-center power & cooling | Inside-the-building pure play — buys switchgear, doesn't make it |
The lane, scored. Quality is a fundamental read, not a price call.
| Ticker | Price | ~Mkt cap | Quality | Risk / reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | $410.56 | ~$160B | 8.5 | Lowest risk — the category king, but a conglomerate; you buy the whole ship |
| VRT | $300.99 | ~$115B | 8.0 | Moderate — pure-play momentum, up 200%+ in two years; discovered |
| HUBB | $475.80 | ~$25B | 7.5 | Low/moderate — steady grid compounder, least AI torque |
| POWL | $231.72 | ~$14B | 7.5 | Moderate — fortress balance sheet, lumpy projects, slower growth |
| FPS | $41.53 | ~$13.3B | 7.0 | High — most torque in the lane; streak-dependent, PE overhang, leveraged |
Sitting on the last shelf. Hold it, and the map opens up.
| Level | Price | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | $56.18 | Major supply zone from the May breakdown |
| Resistance 1 | $50.40 | First big test — also the June deal-price zone |
| Current | $41.53 | Sitting directly on support after the 37% pullback |
| Support 1 | $41.06 | The shelf being tested right now |
| Support 2 | $39.50 | The line that matters — below it sits an air pocket |
John's read: the stock is testing the last meaningful support shelf of the entire run. Hold it, and the path above runs $50 → $56 → $66, each a resistance line from the chart. If $39.50 gives way, there's no shelf until ~$36 — it goes there fast. The setup is defined either way; the levels do the talking.
Four ways this goes. Scenarios, not promises.
The engine trade. Ride the streak, respect the exit.
The backlog is contractual, the customers are diversified (none over 9%), and the shortage runs to 2028. This is revenue today, not a story about 2030.
At ~66x this year's profit guide, FPS holds its price only while the every-quarter growth continues. Next test: the fiscal Q4 report (~late August) — quarter six, or the first crack.
The PE sponsor controls the votes and sold at $49 in June. More supply likely comes on strength — expect a ceiling until the sponsor is diluted down.
The screen picked it. The conviction call is mine to add.
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Join the Discord to find out! →Forgent FQ3 2026 results (May 14, 2026) & raised FY26 guidance · Forgent IPO filings (Feb 2026) & June 29 follow-on · Eaton Q1 2026 results · Powell FQ2 2026 results · Hubbell Q1 2026 10-Q · Vertiv Q1 2026 results · quarterly financials via stockanalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) · live prices via brokerage feed, July 14, 2026 intraday. Compiled Jul 2026.